SR – Playoff Preview: The Eastern Conference’s Final Four Teams

Amidst a week filled with playoff competition, Black Lives Matter protests and discussions that nearly wiped out the rest of the season, and a flurry of news stories emanating from the Lake Buena Vista bubble in Orlando, Florida, the NBA Playoffs have graduated from their elementary first rounds, at least that’s the case in the East. As for the West, however, that’s another topic, since two of the four Western first-round series have yet to conclude with the Lakers and Clippers being the only teams to have made it through to the Western semis, so far.

We’ve just about correctly predicted how the four best teams in the East would fare — Milwaukee, Toronto, Boston, and Miami — so now it’s up to fate to decide who gets the golden ticket of an Eastern Conference berth for the NBA Finals, set to be rewarded to one of these four teams within the next few weeks.

With that, let’s not make haste and get to breaking down these four powerhouses in the East, and predict how the second round will go for each of them.

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Eastern Team Breakdowns, From 1 To 4

1. Milwaukee Bucks (56-17, 1st in East, Won First Round vs. ORL 4-1) – Whilst making quick work of the host city’s team Orlando Magic after a confoundingly shocking game one loss, Milwaukee made the adjustments after shaking off rust that oxidized before the postseason had even begun and are heading to the second round of the Eastern playoffs. The top-seeded team we’d expect to see in the Bubble finally got back on track this past series and so did the defense, as Milwaukee had only won three of the eight seeding games heading into the playoffs due to some slouches on both ends.

Give it to the Orlando Magic, though. Though undermanned and without their three of their best defenders in Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, and Mo Bamba, the Magic didn’t go down without a fight.

However, the league’s most offensively and defensively efficient team dispatched of the eighth-seeded Magic with obvious consistent contributions from the likes of the presumptive MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, as he put up around 30.6 points, 16 rebounds, and 6 assists per game off of 56 percent shooting. He was a freight train heading to the hoop and it didn’t matter what kind of wall the Magic put up defensively to force him to kick it out to wing shooters; when he got downhill, there was very little Nikola Vucevic or any other Magic big to contest him.

The more revelating surprise? Khris Middleton is slowly returning to form, having upped his efficiency and overall numbers in the last two games of the series. Compared to his sluggish start to the postseason of 11.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game while shooting 32.4 percent that was really residue left over from the seeding games, Middleton started to resemble his regular-season form, scoring 21 points in two straight contests.

With that being said, Miami is no joke. They’ll have to continue that hot shooting from both of their All-Stars against an equally stout defensive, sharpshooting juggernaut in the Heat, who have won two games at home against Milwaukee this season.

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2. Toronto Raptors (53-19, 2nd in East, Won First Round vs. BKN 4-0) – To put it quite simply: the defending champions are rolling. In game four of their first-round series against Brooklyn, the Raps’ bench scored — get this — 100 points against Caris LeVert and the rest of Brooklyn’s makeshift rotation, effectively completing the sweep. That’s always been a virtuous attribute for Newly-appointed Coach of the Year Nick Nurse; seeing the value of each piece and how each spindle of a Raptor fits within the non-stopping-any-time-soon wheel that is this fiery start to a title defense.

In that 100-point bench scoring performance during the only game they played this week, they had four non-starters go for double figures, including their two leading scorers Norman Powell who dropped 29 points, and Serge Ibaka, who scored 27 points in the 150-122 mauling of the maligned Nets.

On a more serious note, however, it was brought to the national media’s attention that the Celtics and Raptors were the two most notable teams who discussed the sit-out and boycott of the NBA Playoffs as a result of the cyclical pattern of police brutality and the senseless attempted murder of 29-year old Jacob Blake once his story became apparent. And coincidentally, the top-seeded Bucks just went and did it before Game 5 of their series.

In hindsight, that may have done more good than harm, considering the grade 2 ankle sprain All-Star guard Kyle Lowry sustained in the series’ final game. His health will undoubtedly be a salient storyline heading into the second round of the playoffs, and they’ll need all the offensive firepower they can get against a much more formidable foe in the Boston Celtics.

Some stats to throw out to show how dangerous these Raptors are in the bubble: they’re second in points per game with 126.3, first in rebounds per game with 51, first in assists per game at 30.5, tied for second in blocks per game at 5.5, third in field goal percentage at 49.5, fifth in 3-pointers made at 71 and second in 3-point percentage with 43.3. This could be a fireworks show of a series if both teams are clicking, but the health of the Raptors and Celtics could ultimately decide who survives this grudge match.

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3. Boston Celtics (48-24, 3rd in East, Won First Round vs. PHI 4-0) – It’s been a mix of really good and dishearteningly bad for the third-seeded Boston Celtics, who will be the first team in the bubble to kick off the second round of the NBA Playoffs.

On the good end, count the positives. You’re awash with a litany of selections to pick from. Kemba Walker’s knee seems to be healing up well, and he’s reverting back to the Charlotte Hornets/Connecticut Huskies Cardiac Kemba we remembered him be, drawing switches, creating separation off the bounce, stopping on a time, exploding to the rack, and utilizing that footwork in that in-between game, pulling up from around and within the perimeter.

So far in this postseason, the Celtics’ starting guard is averaging 24.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. This is a career-high in postseason rebounding and scoring in a career-low in playoff minutes per game, which is largely due to the minutes restriction placed on him because of his still-recovering knee.

Jayson Tatum is the no-doubt Numero Uno guy, capable of taking over and flashing his skillset to be the best player on the floor every game with splits of .487/.452/.720 and scoring averages of 27.0 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 2.3 blocks per game.

As it goes for the negatives, however, the Celtics are still waiting for a massive and efficient Jaylen Brown performance, since his numbers steadily dropped in the four games against Philadelphia. Their bench isn’t all that impressive either, only topping out at 29th in the NBA in total bench points. As said earlier in the Raptors section, that won’t cut it for a Raptors rotation that can go 10 deep, regardless if the Celtics are the third-best defensive team in the league.

And the worst of all: Gordon Hayward, who was an integral part of the Celtics posing as that arduous, threatening Boston team that the Raptors could only beat once all season, probably won’t be back until the Conference Finals due to a Grade 3 ankle sprain and the eventual birth of his son. Length and wingspan will be the key for the Celtics to take this series, and not having the switchable Hayward that is adept at stopping opposing guards off the dribble will cause Boston to have trouble containing the tandem of Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, and Pascal Siakam.

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4. Miami Heat (44-29, 5th in East, Won First Round Series vs. Indiana 4-0) – Well, that was pretty easy for the Heat. What was hyped up as a potentially gritty and hard-fought series for both teams turned into a steamrolling for the Heat, who swept TJ Warren’s Indiana Pacers to advance to the second round of the playoffs. You can call it a matter of different factors as to why the Pacers were swept: Victor Oladipo not being 100 percent affecting his ability to get into a rhythm, no rebounding presence without Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner struggling. But don’t leave out this little tidbit:

The Miami Heat are just that damn good.

This is the first time since 2015 that the Heat have advanced to the second round, and the first time in the post-Dwyane Wade era. Erik Spoelstra knows a thing or two on how to dismantle championship favorites who oppose his Heat; he’s got two rings to prove that. Now, the evident obstacle that lies within he and His Miami Heat’s path are the top-seeded Bucks, but these South Florida hoopers are no easy out for Milwaukee.

In fact, you could argue that the Heat are the ultimate threat to the Bucks in the playoffs as a whole.

There are a lot of reasons why Miami could upset the Bucks and have them packing early to head back home to Wisconsin. First, the shooting. Miami has nine shooters from deep that shoot above 36 percent and as a team, they are shooting 39.1 percent from long range in the playoffs. Jimmy Butler returned from injury and fit in like a glove with the Heat like he has all season in his new home. Averaging 19.8 points off a 40.5 shooting percentage from the field, his presence on the defensive end was the nail in the Pacers’ coffin as he didn’t allow bubble-leading scorer Warren to score 30 points once in the postseason.somewhat

The Bucks have very little margin for error when it comes to letting Miami linger, and they cannot let their pedigree of being the first seed flutter in their minds while thinking that a trip to the Conference Finals for a second-straight season is a predetermined truth. They do that and let up opportunities for the Heat to go on runs, and they’ll find out just as quickly that their title aspirations will burn up into ashes if they lose to Bam Adebayo (who is the best statistical defender against Giannis Antetokounmpo in the NBA) and the rest of the Heat.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Matchups: Semifinals

#1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #5 Miami Heat

As mentioned in previous sections, this will be a physical, knock-down, drag-out fight between two teams that have constructed some sort of rivalry. Miami split the season series against the Bucks, and many speculate this could be the exiting point for the top-seeded Bucks since the Heat match up so well against them. You look on paper, and can easily conclude that it will come down to the All-Stars in Jimmy Butler and Giannis Antetokounmpo having the noteworthy battle that will determine who heads to the conference finals.

For Butler, it’ll be a respawning from last year’s situation, with him being back in the second round with the looming possibility of heading home at the same point as how he did last year as a member of the Philadelphia 76ers.

And we know how last year ended for the Sixers as Butler came away with an inbound steal to finish an open-court go-ahead layup, tie a pulsating game seven against Toronto, and Kawhi Leonard would subsequently heave a contested deep two that took four bounces on the iron before dropping in, resulting in the first-ever Game 7 buzzer-beater in playoff history and (debatably) perhaps a top-10 moment in NBA History.

This is personal for Miami, as a means to prove to the collective basketball universe that they’re not to be toyed with, and to the Bucks that it doesn’t matter who’s better on paper, because what matters on the hardwood is the say-all factor.

Matchup wise, the heavyweight fight has to be between Giannis and Bam, right? Looking at advanced stats, Adebayo has defended 28 shots against Antetokounmpo this season, and the reigning MVP went 12-of-28, including 0-of-7 from deep on those shots. Antetokounmpo’s worst game this season (using Basketball Reference’s game score) was his 6-of-18 shooting performance in a 16-point loss to Miami on March 2.

Milwaukee has yet to face a real challenge in the bubble, and it’s yet to be seen if they can withstand the onslaught that is Miami’s perimeter shooting and aggressive, airtight defense played by a bunch of lengthy wings. However, Milwaukee can match those intangibles and physicality with that of their own. These are two equally dangerous squads, and this should make for a great series.

FanDuel has Miami as +6.5 underdogs, but ultimately shocking the Bucks in game one as -110 favorites.

Prediction: Miami Wins Series 4-3.

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#2 Toronto Raptors vs. #3 Boston Celtics

Separated by only 5.5 games in the East during the regular season, Boston has had Toronto’s number in the four times the two Atlantic Division rivals have played all season, but none more so than the 22-point scalping the Raptors suffered by way of a more physically imposing Boston team that utilized positionless basketball, opting for switching their lengthy wings onto smaller guards who are proficient at creating their own shots but struggle to score against taller and longer matchups.

And while that may be an issue for the Raptors, that’s when they can turn to their second All-Star in Pascal Siakam who is an immediate answer to that length Boston uses as their advantage. The issue with him, as we’ve seen throughout their season, is while this is team that puts up a multitude of points by committee, they’ve looked at Siakam to be the take-us-home guy when possessions get tense and defensive coverages get hard to break, and he hasn’t quite lived up to expectations in big games.

The main cause of doubt when assessing Toronto’s legitimate chances of repeating come down to multiple things like health to their most important star pieces and role players, but the main plaguing concern stems from Toronto’s inability to have a highly-skilled mismatch at the wing spot to take over and hit big shots, like how they did when Kawhi was there last year. The Raptors are surely looking at their other All-Star in Siakam to be that guy, but it’s yet to be determined if they have those guys that can carry the offense when the script gets thrown out of the window.

And that’s where the inequality (poor choice of words, sorry, I know) lies. Toronto is a very routine team on the offensive end, since a majority of their points come from motion halfcourt sets, transition opportunities, and fastbreaks when they up the tempo to force natural mismatches in the open court when everyone can’t get back. But other than some jumpers they can get against Boston’s length, don’t expect to see a whole lot of slashing and shot creation from the likes of VanVleet and Lowry, since they’ve had difficulty all season driving against Boston’s wingspan.

Meanwhile Boston, who also runs a set offense and is also lethal in the open court, has three of those isolation scorers: one at the guard spot in Kemba Walker, and two wings that can choose to clear out, take charge of the offensive attack, play one-on-one and ice games late down the stretch.

After all, this game is about a bucket. In the postseason, every made basket is crucial, so in order to win a championship, you need those mentally resilient guys who are fearless to take tough shots and make tough shots. And as history has shown, championship teams have that balance where they can run a set offense where the ball doesn’t stick and role players get their shots in the flow of the offense, but the true Alpha Males will the basket into the nylon when times call for them to be extemporaneous.

FanDuel has Toronto winning the series in six games and have the Raps as -116 favorites. They’ve been great all season, especially on the defensive end. Boston will also be without Boston’s Gordon Hayward, who is out for the foreseeable future. But it’ll be hard to get out of this series without that explosive, offensively-gifted, fearmongering playmaker they once had when they won it all last year.

That might be the deciding factor in this series.

Prediction: Boston Wins Series 4-2.