Through three Finals games, a couple of things are certainly uncertain: this series is far from over, but at the same time feel as if they’re only a few key adjustments from really being over in a sum of five to six games.
The Milwaukee Bucks seemed down and out after throwing their best punch in Game two, only to have it demoralizingly dissipate as the Suns pounced on them with ferocity during their 118-108 win to jump ahead 2-0, with only two more wins needed to capture the Franchise’s first NBA Championship.
Devin Booker mentally tweaked his game and was unfazed with Milwaukee’s activity and pesky length on defense, dropping 31 of the team’s 118 points off of a fairly efficient 12-for-25 shooting and 7-for-12 shooting from beyond the arc, and Chris Paul took over in the third and fourth quarters with another signature closeout performance, scoring 23 points and accompanying his scoring efforts with 10 assists even with Jrue Holiday in his face.
Milwaukee mostly went away from the aggressive switching plan that didn’t work out too well for them in Game 1, but two straight forgettable efforts on offense by both Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday only dampened what was a solid defensive gameplan and an all-time Finals showcase from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who not only scored 42 points off 15-for-21 shooting with 12 assists to boot (albeit, coming off a significant knee injury) but did so while singlehandedly keeping the Bucks in the game as the first player with 20+ points in a single NBA Finals quarter in the last 25 years. Antetokounmpo scored 20 points all by himself and was up to 32 points by the third’s end.
Bur for the rest of the Bucks, who entered the third quarter down by 11, they only cut into the deficit by a mere point, ending the quarter down 10. Khris Middleton struggled the entire night to get into a consistent rhythm and finished with only 11 points off 5-for-16 shooting, and the same was said for Jrue Holiday, who finished Game 2 with only 17 points off 7-for-21 shooting.
However, Game three on home soil told a different story, but not one the Suns would have particularly enjoyed listening to. Another signature Giannis Antetokounmpo masterclass was put on Sunday night, in which the two-time MVP and Defensive Player of the Year went for his second-consecutive 40+ point night and became the fourth highest-scoring player in NBA Finals history during their championship round debut as the Bucks won their first Finals game in 47 years.
But that’s a story we’ll get into during these weekly Power Rankings, where we break down the remaining teams in this year’s playoffs and who has the most salient advantages and injurious disadvantages in this Final postseason series.
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1. Milwaukee Bucks
(46-26, Won 4-0 vs. Miami Heat in First Round, Won 4-3 vs. No. 2 Brooklyn Nets in ECSF, Won 4-2 vs. Atlanta Hawks in ECF, Down 1-2 vs. West’s No. 2 Phoenix Suns in NBA Finals, Last Week’s Ranking: 2)
What we’re witnessing from Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t human, in more ways than one.
When Clint Capela made his knee bend backwards during a routine drive to the rim in transition during Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals, it seemed like every championship hope that Bucks fans had during their greatest opportunity to win a championship just faded away as he sustained that hyperextended knee (accidental) injury at the hands of the Hawks center. Until Game one of the Finals, that is. Antetokounmpo looked as explosive as he could’ve, scoring a pedestrian-yet-respectable 20 points off 6-for-11 shooting as he tried to get back to repeating the motions prior to his injury.
But best believe, as Antetokounmpo ground his teeth together and put on the affect display of a man who didn’t want to die just yet, Games two and three have been some showings of legend, that in which we likely will not see for quite some time unless he and the Bucks are back in the Finals next year.
Head coach Mike Budenholzer strategized a gameplan to put even more pressure on rising star Suns center Deandre Ayton in the halfcourt by primarily keeping Giannis at the center spot which limited the Suns’ capabilities at running their Pick and Roll sets ad nauseam atop the key, while also upping the pace both in the halfcourt and in transition, where Ayton unsuccessfully impeded the path of Antetokounmpo in Game three. Giannis continued his already legendary 2020-21 postseason with his 41 points off 13-for-21 shooting with 13 rebounds and 6 assists.
And while ethering the spirit of another dominating big man who wreaked havoc and wore purple and gold, Antetokounmpo became as he put up a second-straight stat-line of 40+ points and 12+ rebounds, joining Shaquille O’Neal in the 2000 Finals and LeBron James in the 2016 Finals.
And where Paul and Booker were unable to find daylight during the Bucks many runs to go up by as many as 25 points, Ayton was bombarded on the offensive glass and in the open court, where Milwaukee made it an emphasis to get him in foul trouble.
And from there, the Bucks busted the game open.
Phoenix losing Dario Saric may not have bruised them on the offensive end – well, maybe, if ever so slightly due to Saric’s role as a Pick and Pop Power Forward off the bench – but he presented a viable asset of height during Phoenix’s running of small lineups when Ayton sat. And with Ayton picking up four fouls before the third quarter even concluded, it gave Budenholzer’s Bucks the opportunity to gash the opening even further with running Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, and PJ Tucker with Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, a lineup that has helped to produce a +7.4 net rating and a 70.0 Defensive Rating this postseason.
Lineups like this heavily assisted the Bucks on the glass as they outrebounded the Suns 47-36 though four quarters, and as a team roles from Games two and three were switched in the turnover margin, as the Suns committed a total of 15 turnovers compared to the Bucks’ nine.
And speaking of Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, the bad mojo finally wore off, and schematically, allowing two volume scorers and floor setters at the point and the two/three to dictate the pace of the offense, rather the game, by keeping Giannis Antetokounmpo on the block and as a high screener did wonders for the scoring duo who are playing in their first Finals together.
The duo monumentally improved in their scoring ability in Game three at home, and Middleton (18 points on 14 shots, 7 rebounds, 6 assists) made his impact as their venerable isolation scorer as well as a defense-bending setup man. Holiday on the other hand (21 points off 8-for-14 shooting and 5-for-10 from deep) did the same, but made sure to aggravate Chris Paul on the other end who only got up a total of 14 shots as the team’s primary scorer. And with Devin Booker struggling as he did, it just made shrinking the floor that much easier.
And again, more importantly, as Devin Booker (10 points on 21.4 percent shooting) wore what looked a to be a demure facial expression thanks to the exemplary defensive masterpiece put together by Budenholzer and his coaching staff in Sunday night’s beatdown, Phoenix realizes they’re in for a fight .
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2. Phoenix Suns
(51-21, Won 4-2 vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers in First Round, Won 4-0 vs. No. 3 Denver Nuggets in WCSF, Won 4-2 vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers in WCF, Up 2-1 vs. East’s No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks in NBA Finals, Last Week’s Ranking: 1)
Two straight wins over the second-best defensive team in this year’s playoffs were not flukey wins by any means, and getting hot at the right time is an attribute many teams and players would favor having on their side with the benefits getting in the zone provide for a team playing off the steam of momentum. But like all fiery runs, and a flame itself really, they cool off every now and then and decrease in volume.
Metaphorically, that was the case in Game three for the Phoenix Suns, who haven’t (yet) seen the sky fall onto their heads as they still lead the NBA Finals 2 games to 1, and adjustments permitted could be headed back to Phoenix with a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals with the opportunity to close out the series later this week and win their first title in franchise history.
But, like we explained up in the Bucks’ section, a few things will have to happen to ensure the best road team in the league this year reverberates their reputation in the second-biggest series the franchise has ever competed in:
For starters: Deandre Ayton cannot – and I repeat *cannot* – be off the floor for an entire duration of a quarter and more. There were too many times in Sunday’s contest in which Ayton’s foul trouble resorted in the Suns getting desecrated on the offensive glass by the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, PJ Tucker, Brook Lopez and others, and it largely resulted in a litany of second-chance points.
The lack of a domineering rim presence that Ayton provided which cut off nearly 2/3rds of the floor for Milwaukee in Games one and two was deliberately noticeable, and there existed a semblance of open leeway for the Bucks to get whatever they wanted during the operations of Monty Williams’ small lineups.
Offensively and defensively, the Suns could not crack the height-heavy Bucks lineups when Ayton was off of the floor during the Bucks’ 30-9 run to end the first half, and as they remained small due to their depth becoming involuntarily anemic due to some injuries and shifting of less-skilled defenders in Dario Saric’s spot to supplement the responsibilities he’d be tasked with, they paid for it with an embarrassing 20-point loss to a Bucks team that now has life. Frank Kaminsky and Cameron Johnson were the second and third options to counter the Bucks’ size in the paint, but wooden planks would’ve been more sufficient as the Bucks flowed into their PnR sets and ran a majority of their actions on the areas they stood at.
However, keep in mind: the Suns were only down three at the end of the first quarter prior to Ayton picking up his third and fourth fouls, and when that happened, Budenholzer’s Bucks did not take the opportunity for granted, employing that Portis-Antetokounmpo-Holiday-Middleton-Tucker lineup to run up the points in the paint stat column. As these playoffs go, runs are countered by runs, but even as the Suns cut it to within four with 5:22 remaining in the third quarter, the Bucks responded with a emphatic 24-6 run to close the quarter and put the game out of reach. Phoenix couldn’t score and got cold due to the tenacity on D that the Bucks displayed in a must-win game and therefore, took the tandem of Chris Paul and Devin Booker out of the equation in the second half.
Which brings us to our second point: the outside shooting, and Devin Booker, have to be better.
Granted, a lot of the Suns spacing largely revolves around the positioning of the bigs in this Phoenix offense, and the off-ball movement of every action is dependent on the ball handlers’ ability to dribble-manipulate their defender into call for more help so that the centers can receive the balls in their favorite spots, and equally have the liberty to facilitate the rock around the perimeter to find the weakside shooter.
But, for a player of his caliber who is adept at tough shot-making, it’s on Monty Williams’ onus to get Booker into his spots and stay the course so he doesn’t see a repeat of his homely Game 3 performance. PJ Tucker covered Booker for the time they did not switch their matchups, but when they did Giannis Antetokounmpo waited in the wings for him off every ball screen on the wings.
Chris Paul (team-high 19 points off 8-for-14 shooting) saw bodies off switches and the same stingy, air-tight defense that his backcourt cohort saw, but during the massive runs they gave up to Milwaukee, the Suns saw driving lanes close up faster than a Venus Fly Trap as Milwaukee responded with defensive ferocity, hard close-outs, stunts-and-recoveries, and physicality coming towards the Suns in bunches. Those all got D. Book out of whack, resulting in a 10-point, 3-for-14 disaster of a playoff performance he’d like to throw in the garbage.
Those tough jumpers he made in their home games this series didn’t go in as much as he wanted them to during the beginning of Milwaukee’s home stand, but they’ll have to in Game four if the Suns don’t want to lose their series lead to a Bucks team that feel like they have the formula to success.
Phoenix largely found success in the scoring department with a rousing outing from Cameron Johnson on the offensive end, kickstarted after a thunderous poster on PJ Tucker as the second half commenced. He went on a flaming-hot scoring streak in the third, and finished Game 3 with 14 points off 5-for-11 shooting. But he only knocked down one three as opposed to the four threes he’s made as a kickout-knockdown shooter last night. And as a team, the outside shooting shockingly cooled off, as Phoenix only hit on 9 of their 31 attempts from downtown (29 percent). That won’t cut it.
So, as game four approaches, the Suns have their work cut out for them in a game that’s transformed into a high-pressure must-win contest. They still do not have an answer for Giannis Antetokounmpo, who by all means will put on one of the greatest (top-5, even?) Finals performances of all-time should the Bucks see this through by getting all favorable looks in the halfcourt for him and his teammates – both by design and by his their own accords – and if Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are spotting their mismatches, consistently scoring and creating in the half-court for themselves and others…it might not be over just yet.
We could have a series on our hands, folks.
Fingers crossed.
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